Seven Takeaways from 2020
4 min readDec 31, 2020
- Freedom. In 2020 we have seen how precious freedom is, but also how can it be used against us. Let us take for the moment the perspective of the virus as a creature that uses evolution to maximize its replication and survival of its offspring. What would be a good strategy that the virus can arrive to? For example, one that does not cause severe symptoms for most of the human population, but abuses something that is precious to the humans, and that is freedom. Stopping it requires some sacrifices in terms of freedom, but we are not always ready to do it. However, if our liberty is part of the strategy of the virus (or a more general enemy), then it is wise to be adaptive and suspend temporarily some elements of the liberty.
- Skepticism. "A wise sacrifice of liberty" means that one has to stay skeptical and alert, such that this sacrifice is not abused by governments or corporations over a longer term. This is a healthy skepticism. It is also fine to be skeptical to new technologies, such as vaccines or the 5G technology. But then it is also important to be consistent and take the consequences, such as being on a list of people thar refuse vaccination. If you are afraid of 5G wireless technology, then you are free to choose not to use any wireless device. Loosely speaking, there seem to be an "optimal" amount of skepticism credits that can be used in a lifetime: too little and one becomes naïve, too much and one becomes paranoid. One should try to put that optimal amount of skepticism to a good use.
- Conspiracy. Similar to the way in which virus spreads by using asymptomatic persons and freedom, conspiracy theories spread panic by using social media and relying on people that have not yet found a good use of skepticism credits (see 2. above). When a conspiracy theory makes you skeptical, use your skepticism to test your hypothesis and prove it. For example, if you believe that the Earth is flat, then make a localization algorithm that works under this assumption, load it onto your GPS device and try to see where it gets you. If you believe that vaccines are used to insert chips in your blood that can be controlled by 5G technology, then take a mobile phone with 5G, soak it into a liquid that has the same electromagnetic properties as the human blood and try to make a call to the phone.
- Math and science. There has been a lot of skepticism in the general public regarding the math that is taught in schools. "When will I ever need to use sin, log or exp?" I think 2020 managed to change this perception, as it became clear that exponential functions can model something that becomes difficult to control. One should take a note about it with respect to climate change, which is also likely an exponential phenomenon with a longer time constant, one that will be difficult to tackle with short-term measures (such as lockdowns) once it starts to manifest its dire consequences. Despite the proliferation of conspiracy theories, 2020 was a year in which science and technology played the role of saviors, offering us ultra-fast development of a vaccine and keeping the society afloat through digital technologies.
- Hunter-gatherer. Despite the monumental advances in science, technology, and society, the hunter-gatherer aspects of human nature have shown that they are still alive and kicking. OK, they used to manifest through cunning strategies for hunting antelopes, in 2020 they were manifested through cunning strategies for carrying simultaneously a large amount of toilet paper rolls from the supermarket, but those are details. It is truly scary that, despite the reassurance that the logistics is operating well and there will be sufficient goods for everyone, the first signs of crisis have immediately invoked this ancient behavior. I do not dare to think what would happen if there is a crisis in which no logistic reassurance is given.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI). Everybody speaks about it, seems to be changing all the areas of work and play, though with mixed success. For example, I have yet to see any good recommendation for a movie or series (I still use Rotten Tomatoes to search by myself). But that is not a significant problem. Instead of general AI that replicates human intelligence, would have been decent to have AI algorithms that are capable to predict the pandemic and its consequences. Perhaps the 2020 health crisis can give a more prominent role to AI, as a co-worker of humans to tackle large-scale phenomena.
- Critical juncture. The Chapter “Small Differences and Critical Junctures…” from the book “Why Nations Fail” by D. Acemoglu and J. A. Robinson describes the plague from 1346 as a critical juncture that ignited large divergence between the institutions/countries in the East and West. The plague pandemic lasted for 7 years and, according to this book, its effects were there several centuries after: collapse of the feudal system, industrial revolution, institutions that create different incentives for work and innovation, etc. Hopefully the present pandemic will last less than 2 years, but we are living in a world that is significantly accelerated compared to 1346 in technological, economic, and societal sense. This begs the question: Will this pandemic be seen as a critical juncture after some decades?
